Australia GDP nowcast
This nowcast is a real-time estimate of GDP growth for the latest quarter, produced before the ABS publishes the official figure with a roughly 3-month lag after the end of the quarter.
Last updated: 10 Aug 2026
2026 Q2 — our GDP estimate
Quarterly growth over the last 12 quarters (dark teal); this quarter’s estimate in green.
Nowcast evolution
Each green point is a weekly nowcast for 2026 Q2. As new indicator data arrives through the quarter, the nowcast evolves. The line traces those revisions up to the ABS GDP release. The dark-teal circle shows the previous quarter’s actual GDP growth for context.
Indicators
updated this weekJobs & labour
Households
Business surveys
Financial & credit
Trade
| Indicator | Latest | Δ m/m | Δ m/m (%) | Updated | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Building approvals | 18,328 | +1,238 | +7.24% | 6 August | 1 September |
| Exports | $47,696M | +$4.2bn | +9.65% | 6 August | 3 September |
| Consumer confidence (ANZ) | 75.0 | +4.2 pts | — | 4 August | 11 August |
| Household spending | $79,449M | +$159M | +0.20% | 4 August | 27 August |
| Job ads | 117.1 | +1.3 pts | — | 4 August | 7 September |
| 10yr govt bond yield | 4.9% | +0.1pp | — | 2 August | 2 September |
| 10yr yield spread | 0.4% | +0.1pp | — | 2 August | 2 September |
| 3yr govt bond yield | 4.5% | +0.0pp | — | 2 August | 2 September |
| 3yr yield spread | 0.0% | +0.0pp | — | 2 August | 2 September |
| 5yr govt bond yield | 4.6% | +0.1pp | — | 2 August | 2 September |
| 5yr yield spread | 0.1% | +0.0pp | — | 2 August | 2 September |
| Bank bill rate | 4.5% | +0.0pp | — | 2 August | 2 September |
| Business credit | $1,508.5bn | +$21.9bn | +1.47% | 30 July | 30 August |
| Credit card spending | $39,953M | −$680M | −1.67% | 30 July | 30 August |
| Housing credit | $2,626.3bn | +$22.1bn | +0.85% | 30 July | 30 August |
| Total credit | $4,302.1bn | +$46.8bn | +1.10% | 30 July | 30 August |
| Employment | 14,823.3k | +76.3k | +0.52% | 23 July | 20 August |
| Full-time employment | 10,173.5k | +29.3k | +0.29% | 23 July | 20 August |
| Hours worked | 2.01bn hrs | +4.9m hrs | +0.24% | 23 July | 20 August |
| Part-time employment | 4,649.8k | +47.0k | +1.02% | 23 July | 20 August |
| Underemployment | 1,009.6k | +35.8k | +3.68% | 23 July | 20 August |
| Unemployment | 4.4% | +0.1pp | — | 23 July | 20 August |
| Business conditions | 3 | 0 pts | — | 14 July | 11 August |
| Business confidence | -5 | +9 pts | — | 14 July | 11 August |
| Capacity use | 82 | +0 pts | — | 14 July | 11 August |
| Consumer sentiment (Westpac) | 83.9 | +3.3 pts | — | 14 July | 11 August |
| Forward orders | 0 | 0 pts | — | 14 July | 11 August |
| Hiring intentions | 1 | −1 pts | — | 14 July | 11 August |
| Profitability | 0 | +1 pts | — | 14 July | 11 August |
| Trading conditions | 7 | −1 pts | — | 14 July | 11 August |
| Inventories | 3 | −1 pts | — | 9 June | 14 July |
Track record (simulated)
These are backtested estimates, not live nowcasts. The model was re-run over past quarters using only the data that had been published at the time, to give it a track record before it had accumulated one. No figure below was actually produced on the day. See data/backcasts.json for the underlying runs.
MAE
0.37pp
$2,454M
Bias
+0.34pp
$2,252M · overpredicts
Accuracy gap vs RBA
−0.03pp
6 year-ended comparisons (Q2/Q4) · roughly level with the RBA
MAE (mean absolute error) is the average size of the miss, ignoring direction. Bias is the average signed miss, so a positive value means the model tends to come in a little high. The RBA gap compares our year-ended estimate with the RBA’s forecast published mid-quarter (about two months before our full-quarter estimate) for each June and December quarter; a negative gap means we landed closer to the final figure. We use more within-quarter data than that RBA forecast, and both are measured against later-revised GDP.
| Quarter | Simulated nowcast | Actual | Error (pp) | Our (YE) | RBA (YE) | Gap (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 | +0.87% | +0.27% | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 Q4 | +0.75% | +0.87% | −0.12 | 2.38% | 2.00% | −0.38 |
| 2025 Q3 | +0.47% | +0.38% | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| 2025 Q2 | +0.85% | +0.97% | −0.12 | 1.86% | 1.80% | −0.06 |
| 2025 Q1 | +0.25% | +0.26% | −0.01 | — | — | — |
| 2024 Q4 | +0.65% | +0.44% | +0.21 | 1.46% | 1.50% | −0.04 |
| 2024 Q3 | +0.92% | +0.31% | +0.61 | — | — | — |
| 2024 Q2 | +0.73% | +0.25% | +0.48 | 1.38% | 1.20% | +0.18 |
| 2024 Q1 | +0.83% | +0.24% | +0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2023 Q4 | +0.41% | −0.01% | +0.42 | 1.76% | 1.50% | +0.26 |
| 2023 Q3 | +0.48% | +0.40% | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023 Q2 | +0.85% | +0.46% | +0.39 | 2.66% | 1.75% | −0.11 |
| 2023 Q1 | +1.07% | +0.48% | +0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2022 Q4 | +0.98% | +0.83% | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022 Q3 | +0.84% | +0.48% | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2022 Q2 | +1.94% | +0.99% | +0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2022 Q1 | +1.44% | +0.93% | +0.51 | — | — | — |