Australia GDP nowcast
This nowcast is a real-time estimate of GDP growth for the latest quarter, produced before the ABS publishes the official figure with a roughly 3-month lag after the end of the quarter.
Last updated: 15 Jun 2026
2026 Q2 — our GDP estimate
Quarterly growth over the last 12 quarters (dark teal); this quarter’s estimate in green.
Nowcast evolution
Each green point is a weekly nowcast for 2026 Q2; the shaded band is its likely range (about a 2-in-3 chance). As new indicator data arrives through the quarter, the nowcast evolves. The line traces those revisions up to the ABS GDP release. The dark-teal circle shows the previous quarter’s actual GDP growth for context.
Indicators
Jobs & labour
Households
Business surveys
Financial & credit
Trade
| Indicator | Latest | Δ m/m | Δ m/m (%) | Updated | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer confidence (ANZ) | 70.8 | +4.3 pts | — | 10 July | 10 August |
| Consumer sentiment (Westpac) | 80.6 | −2.4 pts | — | 16 June | 15 July |
| Building approvals | 16,710 | −597 | −3.45% | 10 June | 1 July |
| Business conditions | 3 | 0 pts | — | 10 June | 10 July |
| Business confidence | -14 | +10 pts | — | 10 June | 10 July |
| Capacity use | 82 | −1 pts | — | 10 June | 10 July |
| Forward orders | 0 | +5 pts | — | 10 June | 10 July |
| Hiring intentions | 2 | +1 pts | — | 10 June | 10 July |
| Inventories | 3 | −1 pts | — | 10 June | 10 July |
| Job ads | 116.0 | +2.0 pts | — | 10 June | 10 July |
| Profitability | -1 | −1 pts | — | 10 June | 10 July |
| Trading conditions | 8 | +1 pts | — | 10 June | 10 July |
| Exports | $47,191M | +$3.2bn | +7.23% | 4 June | 2 July |
| 10yr govt bond yield | 5.0% | +0.0pp | — | 2 June | 2 July |
| 10yr yield spread | 0.6% | −0.1pp | — | 2 June | 2 July |
| 3yr govt bond yield | 4.6% | −0.0pp | — | 2 June | 2 July |
| 3yr yield spread | 0.2% | −0.1pp | — | 2 June | 2 July |
| 5yr govt bond yield | 4.7% | −0.0pp | — | 2 June | 2 July |
| 5yr yield spread | 0.2% | −0.1pp | — | 2 June | 2 July |
| Bank bill rate | 4.4% | +0.1pp | — | 2 June | 2 July |
| Business credit | $1,474.1bn | +$16.8bn | +1.15% | 30 May | 30 June |
| Credit card spending | $39,588M | −$1.2bn | −2.89% | 30 May | 30 June |
| Housing credit | $2,610.6bn | +$38.1bn | +1.48% | 30 May | 30 June |
| Total credit | $4,248.4bn | +$56.2bn | +1.34% | 30 May | 30 June |
| Household spending | $78,090M | −$888M | −1.12% | 28 May | 25 June |
| Employment | 14,737.4k | −18.6k | −0.13% | 21 May | 25 June |
| Full-time employment | 10,160.9k | −10.7k | −0.11% | 21 May | 25 June |
| Hours worked | 2,035,690 | +15,774 | +0.78% | 21 May | 25 June |
| Part-time employment | 4,576.5k | −7.9k | −0.17% | 21 May | 25 June |
| Underemployment | 892.3k | −20.5k | −2.24% | 21 May | 25 June |
| Unemployment | 4.5% | +0.2pp | — | 21 May | 25 June |
Track record
MAE
0.25% of GDP
$1,726M
Bias
+0.10%
$706M · overpredicts
Accuracy gap vs RBA
−0.05pp
6 year-ended comparisons (Q2/Q4) · roughly level with the RBA
MAE (mean absolute error) is the average size of the miss, ignoring direction. Bias is the average signed miss, so a positive value means the model tends to come in a little high. The RBA gap compares our year-ended estimate with the RBA’s forecast published mid-quarter (about two months before our full-quarter estimate) for each June and December quarter; a negative gap means we landed closer to the final figure. We use more within-quarter data than that RBA forecast, and both are measured against later-revised GDP.
| Quarter | Final nowcast | Actual | Error ($M) | Error (%) | Our (YE) | RBA (YE) | Gap (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 | $696,401M | $695,945M | +456 | +0.07% | — | — | — |
| 2025 Q4 | $693,332M | $694,041M | -709 | −0.10% | 2.40% | 2.00% | −0.40 |
| 2025 Q3 | $689,666M | $688,034M | +1,632 | +0.24% | — | — | — |
| 2025 Q2 | $683,931M | $685,416M | -1,485 | −0.22% | 1.76% | 1.80% | +0.04 |
| 2025 Q1 | $680,801M | $678,840M | +1,961 | +0.29% | — | — | — |
| 2024 Q4 | $681,748M | $677,077M | +4,671 | +0.69% | 1.94% | 1.50% | +0.44 |
| 2024 Q3 | $674,294M | $674,130M | +164 | +0.02% | — | — | — |
| 2024 Q2 | $671,058M | $672,076M | -1,018 | −0.15% | 0.74% | 1.20% | −0.16 |
| 2024 Q1 | $675,107M | $670,388M | +4,719 | +0.70% | — | — | — |
| 2023 Q4 | $669,742M | $668,754M | +988 | +0.15% | 1.48% | 1.50% | −0.02 |
| 2023 Q3 | $668,118M | $668,806M | -688 | −0.10% | — | — | — |
| 2023 Q2 | $663,898M | $666,120M | -2,222 | −0.33% | 1.92% | 1.75% | −0.17 |