Australia GDP nowcast

A weekly nowcast of Australian GDP using a dynamic factor model over 13 high-frequency indicators.

Last updated: 16 Apr 2026

2026 Q1 nowcast

+0.32%QoQ+2.88%YoY$695,960M chain volume

QoQ growth over the last 12 quarters (dark teal) with current nowcast (green). Data through 2026-04.

GDP nowcast evolution

Nowcast for 2026 Q1 | Latest: +0.32%, QoQ (-48 days until release)

Indicators

Labour

Consumer

Business

External

Track record

MAE

$1,832M

0.26% of GDP

RMSE

$1,832M

Directional hit rate

100%

Nowcast predicted the correct direction

Each quarter, the final nowcast (latest vintage before the release) is compared against the actual GDP value. Directional hit rate is the share of quarters where the nowcast correctly predicted growth or contraction.

QuarterFinal nowcastActualError ($M)Error (%)
2025 Q4$691,940M$693,772M-1,832−0.26%