Australia GDP nowcast
This nowcast is a real-time estimate of GDP growth for the latest quarter, produced before the ABS publishes the official figure with a roughly 3-month lag after the end of the quarter.
Last updated: 11 Oct 2026
Q3 2026: GDP nowcast
Quarterly growth over the last 12 quarters (dark teal); this quarter’s estimate in green.
Q4 2026: GDP nowcast
No data yet. The first indicators covering 2026 Q4 arrive in early November.
Nowcast evolution
Each point is a weekly point estimate for 2026 Q3. The shaded areas are the 68% and 95% error bands.
Indicators
updated this weekLabor
Surveys
Housing and Construction
Retail and Consumption
International Trade
Prices
Income
Financial and credit
| Indicator | Latest | Δ m/m | Δ m/m (%) | Updated | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer confidence (ANZ) | 75.0 | +4.2 pts | — | 6 October | 13 October |
| RBA Index of Commodity Prices | 106.622 | +1.0 | +0.98% | 5 October | 2 November |
| Household Spending (real) | 82,340.5 | +24.9 | +0.03% | 4 October | 4 November |
| 10yr govt bond yield | 5.3% | +0.3pp | — | 2 October | 2 November |
| 10yr yield spread | 0.6% | +0.1pp | — | 2 October | 2 November |
| 3yr govt bond yield | 4.9% | +0.4pp | — | 2 October | 2 November |
| 3yr yield spread | 0.2% | +0.2pp | — | 2 October | 2 November |
| 5yr govt bond yield | 5.0% | +0.3pp | — | 2 October | 2 November |
| 5yr yield spread | 0.3% | +0.2pp | — | 2 October | 2 November |
| Bank bill rate | 4.7% | +0.2pp | — | 2 October | 2 November |
| Building Approvals | 16,953 | −1103.0 | −6.11% | 2 October | 2 November |
| Exports | 47,433 | +1707.0 | +3.73% | 1 October | 5 November |
| Imports | -46,938 | −2563.0 | +5.78% | 1 October | 5 November |
| Business credit | $1,534.8bn | +$14.8bn | +0.97% | 30 September | 30 October |
| Credit card spending | $41,248M | +$592M | +1.46% | 30 September | 30 October |
| Housing credit | $2,627.5bn | −$5.4bn | −0.21% | 30 September | 30 October |
| Total credit | $4,330.3bn | +$10.7bn | +0.25% | 30 September | 30 October |
| Household spending (nominal) | $80,481M | +$24.3M | +0.03% | 29 September | 4 November |
| Monthly CPI | 107.85 | +0.7 | +0.68% | 28 September | 28 October |
| Full-time employment | 10,193.9k | −6.3k | −0.06% | 24 September | 15 October |
| Hours worked | 2.01bn hrs | +13.7m hrs | +0.69% | 24 September | 15 October |
| Part-time employment | 4,642.6k | +45.8k | +1.00% | 24 September | 15 October |
| Underemployment | 962.9k | −18.9k | −1.93% | 24 September | 15 October |
| Employment | 14,836.577 | +39.5 | +0.27% | 20 September | 15 October |
| Unemployment rate | 4.646 | +0.2 | +3.61% | 20 September | 15 October |
| NAB Business Conditions | -1 | −5.0 | −125.00% | 13 September | 13 October |
| Business confidence | -8 | −2 pts | — | 8 September | 13 October |
| Capacity use | 83 | −1 pts | — | 8 September | 13 October |
| Consumer sentiment (Westpac) | 84.4 | −4.5 pts | — | 8 September | 13 October |
| Forward orders | 0 | +3 pts | — | 8 September | 13 October |
| Hiring intentions | 3 | 0 pts | — | 8 September | 13 October |
| Profitability | -9 | −10 pts | — | 8 September | 13 October |
| Trading conditions | 3 | −4 pts | — | 8 September | 13 October |
| ANZ-Indeed Job Ads | 122.3 | +5.2 | +4.44% | 7 September | 6 October |
| AiG Manufacturing PMI | -16.6 | +3.0 | −15.31% | 4 September | 5 October |
| Real gross domestic income | 690,389 | +261.0 | +0.04% | 3 September | 2 December |
| Real gross domestic product | 699,461 | +2922.0 | +0.42% | 3 September | 2 December |
| Unit labour cost | 110.3 | +1.3 | +1.19% | 3 September | 2 December |
| Inventories | 3 | −1 pts | — | 9 June | 14 July |
Track record
MAE vs the RBA, last 3 years (year-on-year)
Bias
+0.08pp
quarterly growth · $548M · overpredicts
Actual is the ABS's initial estimate of quarterly GDP growth, the figure the nowcast is built to match. The nowcast is the model's estimate less its average error over recent quarters. MAE (mean absolute error) is the average size of the miss, ignoring direction. Bias is the average signed miss, so a positive value means the nowcast tends to come in high. For comparison, the RBA column shows the RBA's forecast published mid-quarter (about two months before our full-quarter estimate) for each June and December quarter.
| Quarter | Nowcast | Actual | Error (pp) | Nowcast (YoY) | RBA (YoY) | Actual (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | +0.53% | +0.42% | +0.11 | 2.25% | 1.90% | 2.14% |
| 2026 Q1 | +0.55% | +0.27% | +0.28 | 2.77% | — | 2.49% |
| 2025 Q4 | +0.63% | +0.79% | −0.16 | 2.33% | 2.00% | 2.49% |
| 2025 Q3 | +0.47% | +0.39% | +0.08 | 2.10% | — | 2.02% |
| 2025 Q2 | +0.46% | +0.60% | −0.14 | 1.58% | 1.80% | 1.72% |
| 2025 Q1 | +0.29% | +0.21% | +0.08 | 1.18% | — | 1.10% |
| 2024 Q4 | +0.52% | +0.58% | −0.06 | 1.32% | 1.50% | 1.38% |
| 2024 Q3 | +0.49% | +0.33% | +0.16 | 1.04% | — | 0.88% |
| 2024 Q2 | +0.42% | +0.22% | +0.20 | 1.18% | 1.20% | 0.98% |
| 2024 Q1 | +0.50% | +0.13% | +0.38 | 1.26% | — | 0.88% |
| 2023 Q4 | +0.22% | +0.24% | −0.02 | 1.52% | 1.50% | 1.54% |
| 2023 Q3 | +0.39% | +0.21% | +0.18 | 2.18% | — | 2.00% |
| 2023 Q2 | +0.42% | +0.36% | +0.06 | 2.32% | 1.75% | 2.25% |
| 2023 Q1 | +0.32% | +0.23% | +0.09 | 2.56% | — | 2.47% |
| 2022 Q4 | +0.47% | +0.48% | −0.01 | 2.87% | — | 2.87% |
Shaded rows are live nowcasts. The rest are backtested i.e. the model re-run over data that was already known.